Monday, September 24, 2007

Models of Error

One of the main points of contention of global warming critics is that all the gloom and doom predictions of the warming alarmists are found in a single place--computer models. Another piece of evidence demonstrating the fact that such models cannot be trusted to make predictions of the future comes to us via Junkscience.com of Sept. 24th. which links to an article about a press release from the University of Arizona. It says in part:
Drought-stricken regions of the Amazon forest grew particularly vigorously during the 2005 drought, according to new research.

The counterintuitive finding contradicts a prominent global climate model that predicts the Amazon forest would begin to "brown down" after just a month of drought and eventually collapse as the drought progressed.

“Instead of ‘hunkering down’ during a drought as you might expect, the forest responded positively to drought, at least in the short term," said study author Scott R. Saleska of The University of Arizona. "It's a very interesting and surprising response."

UA co-author Kamel Didan added, "The forest showed signs of being more productive. That's the big news."
Even bigger news is that there is no evidence to support the idea that global warming will result in any kind of catastrophe for life on earth and that there is plenty of evidence for the opposite--the historical record--which shows that whenever the climate warmed, life flourished. We absolutely cannot trust those who say that "computer models predict...." Maybe someday, but we're nowhere near that day now.
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